Joey Krug on Prediction Markets, Crypto Treasuries & the Next Era of On-Chain Finance (Partner at Founders Fund)

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Prediction markets are no longer a fringe curiosity. They are becoming one of the most revealing instruments in modern finance. Platforms like Polymarket, once a niche corner of crypto, now regularly clear billions in monthly volume as traders speculate on everything from political outcomes to sports to cultural events. Few people saw this future as early, or as clearly, as Joey Krug.

A decade before prediction markets went mainstream, Joey dropped out of college to co-found Augur, the first decentralized prediction market protocol. He later became one of the most influential investors in the category by backing Polymarket at Founders Fund. In this conversation, Joey shares why the moment for prediction markets has finally arrived, what has changed, and how these markets are reshaping information flows across society.

We explore:

• The experimental mindset that led Joey from horse-racing predictions to mining bitcoin in high school

• Why Augur was the right idea at the wrong moment, and what it taught Joey about timing and infrastructure

• The product, liquidity, and founder-market fit signals that persuaded Founders Fund to back Polymarket

• Why resolution is the hardest problem in prediction markets, and how Polymarket approaches it

• How crypto treasury companies are emerging as a major force and where ETFs fit in

• Why mimetic behavior drives entire sectors and how savvy investors read those waves

• The rise and fall of Operation Choke Point and its impact on crypto

• How Founders Fund reframed Joey’s approach to evaluating founders, markets, and structural shifts

Explore the episode

Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(04:10) How Joey began making predictions with horse racing

(08:00) Why Joey began coding with Applesoft BASIC

(09:32) How Joey first discovered crypto

(11:06) Why Joey dropped out of school to pursue crypto

(12:52) The origins of Joey’s interest in medical school

(16:15) How Joey spends nights and weekends splitting time between biotech and trading

(17:18) The early influences behind Augur’s creation

(19:40) Why prediction markets captivated early crypto thinkers

(23:26) The unlock crypto created for prediction markets

(29:22) How Polymarket began and why Joey decided to back it

(32:11) What made Polymarket the right team

(35:25) The FBI raid and how Shane responded

(38:20) Why Joey expected Polymarket’s volume to hold after the election

(40:20) The trend toward duopolies in financial markets

(42:37) What sets Polymarket’s product design apart

(45:25) How to keep prediction markets clear and unambiguous

(48:31) The rise of crypto treasury companies and FF’s work with BitMine

(51:26) The value of crypto treasuries and the role of ETFs

(54:33) The mimetic rise of crypto treasury companies

(57:03) Joey’s take on where the crypto market stands now

(1:00:23) Why Founders Fund is bullish on ETH

(1:03:03) Operation Choke Point, regulatory whiplash, and the end of the crypto crackdown

(1:06:04) Where the Clarity Act falls short

(1:08:56) How Joey’s thinking has evolved since joining Founders Fund

(1:13:21) Final meditations

Follow Joey Krug

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joeykrug

Resources and episode mentions

Books

• Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future: https://www.amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes-Startups-Future/dp/0804139296

• The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future: https://www.amazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/B094PSKDZV

• More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite: https://www.amazon.com/More-Money-Than-God-audiobook/dp/B004AUQPF0

• The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market: https://www.amazon.com/Alchemy-Finance-Reading-Mind-Market/dp/0471043133

People

• Dan Romero’s website: https://www.generalist.com/p/dan-romero

• Sean Parker on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/parkersean

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy

• Micree Zhan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/micree-zhan-305a1817a

• Tom Lee on X: https://x.com/fundstrat

• Michael Saylor’s website: https://www.michael.com

• Peter Thiel on X: https://x.com/peterthiel

Other resources

• No Rivals: The Prophet (Part I): https://www.generalist.com/p/founders-fund-1

• No Rivals: The Disciples (Part II): https://www.generalist.com/p/founders-fund-2

• Founders Fund: https://foundersfund.com/

• The Kentucky Derby: https://www.kentuckyderby.com

• Applesoft Basic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Applesoft_BASIC

• Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System: https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/training/annual-national-training-seminar/2018/Emerging_Tech_Bitcoin_Crypto.pdf

• Ethereum Whitepaper: https://ethereum.org/whitepaper

• Atypical Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome: https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/atypical-hemolytic-uremic-syndrome

• Soliris: https://www.drugs.com/soliris.html

• Alexion: https://alexion.com

• Augur: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augur_(software)#References

• The Future of Farcaster with Dan Romero: https://www.generalist.com/p/dan-romero

• Polymarket: https://polymarket.com

• Kalshi: https://kalshi.com

• Alchemy: https://www.alchemy.com

• Pantera Capital: https://panteracapital.com

• CME Group: https://www.cmegroup.com

• CBOE: https://www.cboe.com

• BitMine: https://www.bitminetech.io

• Workrise: https://www.rigup.com

• Clarity Act of 2025: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633

• Joining Founders Fund: https://medium.com/@joeykrug/joining-founders-fund-4c3544633081

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