After enduring nonstop ads, aggressive texts begging for “just another $5,” and a news cycle involving a bear carcass, American voters are nearing the finish line.

But what does a new presidential administration mean for your portfolio?

Broadly speaking, analysts believe that a Kamala Harris presidency would boost sectors like clean energy, homebuilders, and healthcare. Meanwhile, a second Donald Trump administration would lead to gains in industries like cryptocurrency, financials, small caps, and energy.

The “Trump trade” may sound like a game involving Trump’s digital playing card collection, but it’s actually a strategy that involves investing based on what sectors are set to gain in his administration.

Here are the specific stocks that could enjoy gains under a Trump administration.

• A more relaxed regulatory environment could boost financials like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, according to UBS analyst Andrew Garthwaite.
• US autos such as Ford Motors and General Motors should benefit from the harsher tariffs that Trump has proposed, according to UBS.
• Trump is pro fossil fuels, which could lead to gains for US oil companies like Exxon and BP.
• Private prison stocks like Geo Group and CoreCivic could get a boost.
• Trump has cozied up to bitcoin bros, and promised to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet,” which would translate to good news for bitcoin and crypto exchanges like Coinbase.

Meanwhile, the “Harris trade” would mean investing in a completely different set of stocks.

• A Democratic administration promises more investment in renewable energy, according to UBS, boosting stocks like First Solar and Enphase Energy.
• Companies that have exposure to China, such as Apple and Starbucks, would fare better under Harris, according to UBS.
• Healthcare picks such as Centene Corp and Molina Healthcare could see gains from Harris bolstering Obamacare and Medicaid enrollment.
• Home renovation stocks like Home Depot and Lowe’s should do well, given Harris’s policies to assist homebuyers.

Of course, trading based on the election is not an exact science. Politics is just one minor factor among many, such as macroeconomic data, corporate earnings, and a slew of other unpredictable factors that influence markets.

Another thing to keep in mind: With the election coming down to razor-thin margins, the results could take days to finalize—likely leading to even more market volatility in the short term this week.

But analysts are quick to point out that the stock market has consistently gone up through different political administrations—meaning that, in the long run, staying diversified and invested through political turmoil is a winning strategy.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• Just as Nvidia will replace Intel, Sherwin Williams will replace Dow Inc. on the Dow (how embarrassing, getting kicked off an index you share a name with). Sherwin Williams popped 4.59%, while Dow Inc. fell 2.08%.
• Chewy is also getting added to an index, replacing Stericycle on the MidCap 400. Shares rose 6.34%.
• Peloton pedaled 3.59% higher on a double upgrade from Bank of America analysts, who like the bike company’s higher profit outlook and hiring of new CEO Peter Stern from Ford.
• Yum! China, the company that operates Pizza Hut and KFC restaurants in China, climbed 7.12% after announcing that new store openings translated into better-than-expected revenue and earnings last quarter.

What’s down

• Nuclear energy stocks took a big hit today after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruled that Talen Energy could not increase the amount of energy its nuclear plant in Susquehanna, PA, produces in order to power an Amazon data center. Talen fell 2.23%, Vistra Corp sank 3.18%, and Constellation Energy plummeted 12.46%.
• Clinical data from a Viking Therapeutics trial shows its weight-loss pill is effective. Shares soared then sank 13.36% as investors took profits.
• The New York Times dropped 7.71% thanks to slower subscriber growth last quarter.

You might have a hunch about who will win the US election—but how much would you bet that you're right?

For the first time in about a century, gambling on US elections is legal again. And traders are wagering over $2 billion on the results platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt.

If you’re wondering how this is even legal, you aren’t alone.

For Brew Markets’ first foray onto YouTube, intrepid investing writer Lucy Brewster spoke to the CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour, Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley, and journalist James Surowiecki to understand why prediction markets have gotten so popular so quickly, and the risks that come with gambling on elections.

Spoiler alert: These platforms aren’t just for election betting. People are betting on tons of different real world events on these sites, including pressing questions like: Will the US confirm the existence of aliens? Or, will Taylor Swift get engaged this year?

Watch the new video here, and be nice in the comments—Lucy is sensitive.

There’s perhaps no investor more widely renowned than Warren Buffett. The 94-year-old has managed to remain beloved through financial crises, meme stock mania, and the fury unleashed after he called bitcoin “probably rat poison squared.”

But for a man who made his billions in the markets, the Oracle of Omaha seems less stock-timistic than ever lately.

Berkshire Hathaway did not buy a single stock in Q3, and is continuing to sell down its stakes in famed Buffett picks like Apple and Bank of America.

In fact, over the last quarter Buffett sold $36 billion in equities. On top of that, Berkshire did not buy back any of its own stock, a notable shift given that the investment conglomerate bought back $2.9 billion in the first half of the year and $9.2 billion last year, according to DataTrek Research.

That means the Oracle's cash pile has grown to about $325 billion.

Why? Many investors fear that the famed investor believes stock valuations are flying too close to the sun, so he’s sitting on cash and waiting for a market meltdown.

But that’s not the only possible explanation. Co-founder of DataTrek Nicholas Colas noted that perhaps Buffett is finally retiring, and wants to leave his heirs at Berkshire a nice nest egg to design their own buyback program. Or, he could be raising capital for an acquisition.

So, what exactly could Buffett purchase with $325 billion?

• Netflix (market cap of $323 billion)
• McDonald’s ($209 billion)
• Disney ($173 billion)
• SpaceX, Neurolink, and Twitter/X, with cash left to spare
• 400,000,000 tickets to Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour
• 1,800,000,000 billion busts of himself sold on Ebay
• 16,000,000,000 Morning Brew Freak in the Sheets mugs

Or maybe he just burns it all like the Joker in The Dark Knight. Only time will tell.—LB

• The jobs report last Friday revealed that lower demand for labor doesn’t mean lower pay raises. Big pay bumps are a good thing for individuals, but a bad thing for the economy.
• 70% of the S&P 500 has reported earnings thus far. The results have been so-so.
• Why do mortgage rates keep rising?
• Everyone’s watching the US election tomorrow, but it’s the German government you should really be worried about.
• Crypto is going to be fine no matter what, in spite of its many, many eulogies.
• Want to be a successful investor? Roger Federer has some advice for you.

There are two economic reports tomorrow—the ISM Services reading and a look at the US Trade Deficit—but frankly, neither of them will move the needle like the presidential election.

There’s going to be a lot of noise around the election tomorrow evening, and we know all too well how difficult it can be to tune out and stay the course. The temptation to panic as the needle moves in one direction or the other can be strong.

But don’t let election night jitters weigh you down—the investors who keep their composure and stick to their plan are the ones who find success in the long run.

Before the open

• Ferrari (RACE) has clearly demonstrated the power of a great brand. While many consumers have cut back on luxury goods, Ferrari’s average customers are so wealthy that they aren’t feeling any economic pain, and are all too happy to splurge on a status symbol that goes 0 to 60 in 2.4 seconds. A long waiting list for car deliveries means the company is set for success for months ahead, and management is sure to take a victory lap tomorrow to celebrate the stock’s market-crushing returns this year. Consensus: $2.19 EPS, $1.79 billion in revenue.

After the close

• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has some serious explaining to do. A scathing short-seller report, a Department of Justice probe, and the resignation of its independent financial auditor, all in just a few short weeks, means that shareholders will expect answers when management gets on the earnings call. The only question is if they’ll get any. Consensus: Honestly, who the heck knows anymore?