On what turned out to be a rather bum day for U.S. markets, Nvidia rose about 0.5% following the announcement that the AI superstar is joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing fading chip giant Intel. Nvidia's share price has nearly tripled this year after more than tripling last year. Sherwin-Williams, the other new Dow entrant, jumped nearly 5%. The changes take effect on Friday. 

The writing for Nvidia has been on the wall for a while, though the pace of change between the two companies' fortunes has still been mind-blowing. Three years ago, Intel generated nearly three times Nvidia's annual revenue. When Nvidia reports its next round of results later this month, trailing 12-month sales are projected to be more than double Intel's for the same period. Monday's pickup also put Nvidia's market cap within a hair of eclipsing Apple's $3.38 trillion value. 

But a good day for Nvidia didn't carry over to the rest of the chip sector. Most of those stocks closed in the red, in part on concerns about growing pressure from regulators looking to keep advanced U.S. technology out of China. Chips are now a highly politicized industry in a hyper-political season, with U.S. voters going to the polls on Tuesday to decide a heated presidential election. 

Meanwhile, investor expectations on what that election will bring seem to be shifting. Improved recent polling results for Kamala Harris, including a shock poll over the weekend showing her ahead in traditionally red Iowa, caused a reappraisal of her chances, including in election-betting markets. This was visible in falling yields on Treasury bonds Monday, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes falling 0.052 percentage point to 4.309%. The consensus on Wall Street is that a Trump presidentship would likely add more to the federal budget deficit than a Harris one, driving Treasury rates higher. 

Major U.S. indexes closed the day in the red. The Dow slipped nearly 258 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both dipped 0.3%.   

Here’s what else Heard on the Street was watching:

Crude oil, Bitcoin USD and gold continuous contract data refresh every time you open this email. Other data are as of market close.

In terms of recent stock-market frenzies, the Ozempic trade nearly tops the list, second only to speculation that artificial intelligence will soon be writing this column. But with so much optimism now priced into these stocks, further growth will be more challenging.

What do you get the man who has everything? A cherry on top of his résumé, plus a juicy bonus courtesy of American taxpayers.

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Tuesday brings quarterly results from 21 S&P 500 companies, including Yum Brands, DuPont and AIG. 

This email was written by Heard on the Street, The Wall Street Journal's home for financial analysis and commentary. We question conventional wisdom and dig into the numbers to give readers insights into business and investing. We have exposed scams, highlighted flaws in corporate strategy and, occasionally, tilted at windmills.

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